A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. They authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win here and the other side will eventually lose but each side has got important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
